Entangled Alliances

photo credit: tsevis

Obama’s first State of the Union address was pretty accomplished. And I don’t say that to damn him with faint praise. I could go on about how it was an uplifting speech – and it was. I could go on about how steadfast Obama seemed in the face of economic crisis. And he did. And I could definitely go on about how deftly he mixed the substantive with the personal- the story about the guy who gave his bonus out to his employees was a nice touch, and if you didn’t get a lump in your throat at the mention of that young girl’s remarkable letter then you probably have a model number stamped somewhere on you. But, more than anything, it accomplished what Obama set out to do: that is, lay the groundwork for what is set to be the biggest program of reforms since the Great Society – or maybe even the New Deal. Not only did he put the finishing touches on his case for the recently passed economic stimulus, but he tackled all the big legislative issues ahead of him: the budget; the bank, housing market and auto bailouts; climate change; healthcare reform; education. In doing so he not only framed the debate to come, but deftly rebuffed the objections of the cynics before they’ve even had time to get going.  So yeah, I could go on about how it was was uplifting and stirring. And it really was. But what this speech showed more than anything else is that Obama isn’t going to let anything get in the way of the huge, unprecedented reforms that are coming to America this year – he’s going to control the debate and not repeat the mistakes of the stimulus battle.

Here, then, are what I think were the top 10 key quotes from Obama’s State of the Union. These weren’t necessarily the most memorable or stirring of lines – for that, we have the endless analysis of cable tv – but the lines that I felt were most important, at least in terms of the battles to come. (You can read the transcript of the speech here)

So let there be no doubt: Health care reform cannot wait, it must not wait, and it will not wait another year.

Brilliant. This was definitely the most newsworthy line of the night. There was some concern that with everything on Obama’s plate economy-wise, he wasn’t going to get round to healthcare reform this year. Which would have meant that, given the 2010 midterms and then Obama’s re-election, healthcare would have been delayed till his second term – when his political capital may not be as voluminous as it is now. But with this simple line, Obama announced to America that he’s deadly serious about reform and he’s not going to let it fall by the wayside. The ball is now very much rolling on what will hopefully be the most significant, life-changing domestic bill ever to pass through Congress. 2009 is the year of healthcare… that he made very clear.

History reminds us that, at every moment of economic upheaval and transformation, this nation has responded with bold action and big ideas…

In the midst of civil war, we laid railroad tracks from one coast to another that spurred commerce and industry.

This was very significant. A key concern articulated by many liberals recently – most prominently, perhaps, by Paul Krugman – is that Obama may not be taking advantage of this golden opportunity to let the government pull of the kind of reforms that in normal, non-emergency times would seem impossible to get away with. With these lines, however, Obama showed that he gets it – he understands that this is a once-in-a-century chance to pull of a monumental liberal agenda the likes of which, in theory, will make the Great Society look positively conservative.

And for that same reason, we must also address the crushing cost of health care.

This is a cost that now causes a bankruptcy in America every 30 seconds. By the end of the year, it could cause 1.5 million Americans to lose their homes. In the last eight years, premiums have grown four times faster than wages. And in each of these years, 1 million more Americans have lost their health insurance.

Obama’s emphasis of the excessive cost of the current healthcare system over, say, his desire for universal coverage was very significant in terms of framing the debate to come. It’s a very clear indication of his strategy for healthcare reform: to all the opponents – and there will be many opponents – who will criticise its cost, Obama will respond with the definitive answer: that we literally can’t afford to not pass whatever plan he comes up with.

And there is, of course, another responsibility we have to our children, and that’s the responsibility to ensure that we do not pass on to them a debt they cannot pay. That is critical.

Talk about ambitious: not only did Obama propose a massive agenda of reform but he also promised to halve the deficit by the end of his first term. Critics will no doubt say he’s trying to have his cake and eat it. But they’re wrong – as Obama then went on to say, it’s actually possible to do both at the same time thanks to the savings that will be made by allowing the Bush tax cuts to expire and pulling troops out of Iraq.

We’ll eliminate the no-bid contracts that have wasted billions in Iraq and — and reform our defense budget so that we’re not paying for Cold War-era weapons systems we don’t use.

This was nice. Such actions will help in Obama’s reduction of the budget deficit, but on a more basic level it’s just nice to see an American president who doesn’t treat war as a chance to fund old school weaponry and let defense contractors run riot.

Now, let me be clear. Let me be absolutely clear, because I know you’ll end up hearing some of the same claims that rolling back these tax breaks means a massive tax increase on the American people. If your family earns less than $250,000 a year, a quarter-million dollars a year, you will not see your taxes increased a single dime. I repeat: not one single dime.

Get ready to hear this a lot. Republicans will try to paint this as a tax on the middle class, but if the administration keeps up this refrain 24/7 then saying goodbye to Bush’s tax cuts should prove one of the less difficult tasks ahead.

And that is why I can stand here tonight and say without exception or equivocation that the United States of America does not torture. We can make that commitment here tonight.

We’ve already heard him say this over and over again, but to hear it loud and clear in the State of the Union was just… so refreshing. However I take this not so much as a declaration but as a challenge to keep him to his word. Check again in eight years, then we’ll see if he’s really earned some praise.

Now, to preserve our long-term fiscal health, we must also address the growing cost in Medicare and Social Security. Comprehensive health care reform is the best way to strengthen Medicare for years to come, and we must also begin a conversation on how to do the same for Social Security, while creating tax-free universal savings accounts for all Americans.

This was both good and bad. On the one hand it was nice to see the old “entitlement crisis” myth converted into an argument for comprehensive healthcare reform – in other words Obama is saying to Republicans that if you’re really  worried entitlements like medicare, then make sure you’re on the right side of the upcoming healthcare battle. It’s nice to see the old entitlement canard twisted on its head like that. On the other hand, WTF (and the W stands for why) did he feel compelled to throw in the appeasement line about social security?

This time — this time, CEOs won’t be able to use taxpayer money to pad their paychecks, or buy fancy drapes, or disappear on a private jet. Those days are over. Still, this plan will require significant resources from the federal government and, yes, probably more than we’ve already set aside. But while the cost of action will be great, I can assure you that the cost of inaction will be far greater, for it could result in an economy that sputters along for not months or years, but perhaps a decade.

The news deftly hidden in these lines is that Obama is admitting that he will have to return to congress for some more bailout money. But, as is made clear from the the line that precedes this admission and the line that follows it, he has a clear strategy for doing this: on the one hand emphasise that they’re getting tough on the fat cats while at the same time outlining – in no uncertain terms – that no matter how much people don’t like it, if the banks aren’t helped out in some way than America will be looking at a loooong recession. The reference to “perhaps a decade” was a none too subtle way of saying: look guys, we don’t want to end up like Japan, do we?

So I ask this Congress to send me legislation that places a market-based cap on carbon pollution and drives the production of more renewable energy in America. That’s what we need.

Environmentalists take heart. There was no mention of when this would happen – unlike healthcare reform, he didn’t commit to this year – but you would have to imagine they’ll be trying to get this done sooner rather than later. I should add though that cap-and-trade is a much inferior solution to direct carbon regulation, and may not even work, but I guess this still counts as significant progress – a President promising to help the environment in his address as opposed to openly promising to damage it.

In summary, 2009 is going to be – as Steve Doocy of Fox news might say – huuuge!