Is this the next FiveThirtyEight.com? Let’s wait and see, but some interesting stuff nonetheless from predict09.eu:
Predict09.eu is a prediction of the outcome of the June 2009 European Parliament elections and the resulting make-up of the next European Parliament. The prediction is based on a statistical model of the performance of national parties in European Parliament elections, developed by three leading political scientists: Simon Hix (London School of Economics), Michael Marsh (Trinity College Dublin), and Nick Vivyan (London School of Economics).
The prediction will be updated each week until the elections on 4-7 June.
Their model analyses the expected make-up of the next Parliament by bloc and by member-state. Some highlights and analysis below the fold:
- The new Tory-led “European Conservative” bloc could well be the 4th largest grouping in the Parliament, and in percentage terms will reduce the size of the EPP from 37% of current MEPS to 34% of future ones.
- UK predictions: Labour +3; Lib Dem +1: Tory – no change; UKIP* – 8; Green – 2 (i.e. wiped out). No prediction for the BNP other than the fact that they could “possibly win a seat” (more on this from the Hope Not Hate campaign).
*Incidentally, when you google UKIP, the description you’re presented with is: “Libertarian, non-racist party seeking Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union.” (Umm, if you have to convince people….)
If these numbers seems strange, remember, although it seems long ago now, that Labour are starting from a very low base and the Tories from a very good one. Labour currently have 19 MEPs, down from 64 in the 1994-1999 Parliament (!). The 2004 European elections were dominated by Iraq and a desire to punish Tony Blair without the risk of a Michael Howard Government. A similar but reversed dynamic will likely see the Parti Socialiste losing seats to Sarkozy’s UMP despite the latter’s unpopularity. This raises an interesting question for UK domestic politics. Doubtless, the Tories and the media will highlight the “low base” point – but it seems inherently unlikely that the European elections can be the unadulterated disaster for Gordon Brown that some have predicted.
And as for the Commission:
On the basis of our predicted make-up of the next European Parliament, José Barroso has a good chance of being re-elected as Commission President. However, this assumes that the Liberals (ALDE) would support an EPP-Conservative coalition in support of Barroso, which is not a foregone conclusion. An alternative “progressive” coalition, of Liberals, Socialists, Greens, and Radical Left MEPs could still block the re-election of Barroso.
One last point. It’s interesting to note that, although the European elections are only two months away, UK media coverage has been pretty poor (compare, for example, to dedicated coverage of the US elections two years in advance – yes I know, Barroso’s no Barack). This is further evidence, in my opinion, that UK opinion makers are just not making the effort to make the EU accessible to the British people in the way that other governments and media outlets do. For those with a sprinkling of French, for example, this special section of Le Monde.fr, with its interactive graphics, interviews and profiles, provides a striking contrast.
