Newcomers tuning in to the G8 meeting may have been surprised by recent events. On balance it looks like an event where things get done, everything about it oozes action and dynamism. Firstly, just who they are ought to be enough: USA, UK, Russia, France, Germany, Canada, Japan and errr Italy ( it is rich at least). Secondly, there are as the name would suggest, only 8 of them. 8 is quite small, not like the UN, a system perfectly matched to ensure gridlock if any real global policy ever had to take place. Just 8, market based democracies this ought to be packing with leadership and vision.
Unfortunately, reality is different and while the world is cooking, the G8 kindly offered some token money to help agriculture in developing countries and to promise to keep global temperatures down to a mere 2C rise, no policy, no action or room for vision rather a an extended press conference, suitably vague to offend nobody and of course hopelessly lacking in leadership.
With Climate Change’s effects flexing their muscles, declining ice in the Arctic, water crises from Northern India, to Australia and the US west, rising sea levels and things only set to get worse, it was disheartening to say the least that the top 8 richest countries in the world apparently struggle to lay out any plan that might make them have to take Climate Change seriously. Why was this so?
Apart from the G8’s careful ability to rarely achieve much, this G8 with a focus on Climate change had several factors that damaged it from the start:
- The US the only chance of any global leadership, has yet to pass a Climate bill at a federal level, and has recently been delayed, in reality removing much of the the US’s strength in International negotiations.
- Russia, amusing ( black comedy style) Russia has announced that by allowing emissions to increase up to 2020 at predicted level it will still achieve its kyoto targets due to so much soviet heavy industry closing down.
- Japan, promised to reduce emissions by 15% on 2004 baselines, essentially then reducing 4% emissions since 1990.
- Canada, ranked bottom of the G8 group by the WWF-Allianz group, this affluent state is unfortunately ruled by a Stephen Harper’s minority coalition government whose biggest contribution to Climate change discussions has been to a) admit Climate Change exists and b) be reassured that soundsbites are becoming more robust ( but god forbid they translate into policy).
Amusingly, that leaves the European contingent as leaders, now on the one hand, as a cautious EU supporter I’m proud we’re leading the field, on the other hand UK, Germany, France and Italy reads like who’s who of 19th/20th century has beens and are woefully incapable of providing the true leadership we need.
What are the positives then?
Firstly is that we are in a recession and that may make policy makes especially cautious to be seen to be making any moves on Climate Change that could hamper economic recovery, or even sound like it might, if the US in particular begins to pull out in the next 4 months it may even be able to sneak a bill through congress. If it does this, this could easily provide the catalyst for for key developing countries such as China and India to begin managing targets.
Secondly, Canada could get a new government, actually quite likely and while Mr Ignatieff is still a fan of Alberta’s tar sands, he is a world apart from Mr Harper when it comes to actually tackling Climate Change.
Finally, the debate will continue to roll on, Climate Change will not be going away, slowly but surely people are coming to terms with the need for policy action and I see domestic movement having a positive reciprocal relationship with International policy, if something however disappointing but vaguely substantial can be agreed at Copenhagen, this will strengthen the case for domestic politicians to go back home and bolster their own efforts which should be able to feed back into International negotiations. We won’t get this right with one swing but slowly our pleasantly inadequate politicians might manage to avoid total catastrophe.
