Entangled Alliances

by TfUnQ

Is the European Union at a decisive point?

The Constitutional Treaty was savagely beaten by the Dutch and by the French.  Awkwardly righting itself ike an overweight middle aged boxer, convinced that its younger and sprightlier opponent ( the citizens of each European country) will fall victim to its experience, it crafted a new treaty. The Lisbon treaty, cunningly devised to make things like flags non-binding ( and yes it was a little paired down in other areas).  The leaders of the EU sent this one flying back at its citizens and this time avoided those awkward referendums by letting parliaments vote. After all, nothing says democracy like keeping out the people – not burdening their minds with issues or even giving them the chance.

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Is this the next FiveThirtyEight.com?  Let’s wait and see, but some interesting stuff nonetheless from predict09.eu:

Predict09.eu is a prediction of the outcome of the June 2009 European Parliament elections and the resulting make-up of the next European Parliament. The prediction is based on a statistical model of the performance of national parties in European Parliament elections, developed by three leading political scientists: Simon Hix (London School of Economics), Michael Marsh (Trinity College Dublin), and Nick Vivyan (London School of Economics).

The prediction will be updated each week until the elections on 4-7 June.

Their model analyses the expected make-up of the next Parliament by bloc and by member-state.  Some highlights and analysis below the fold:

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photo credit: mohammadali

As Mark announced on the update to his post, Cameron has formally reasserted his desire for the Conservatives to leave the European People’s Party, the centre right coalition for the European Parliament. Then he will attempt to form a new bloc, which  supports the economic benefits of Europe but keeps away from the federalist leanings underpinning that the EPP displays.

The problem as the FT’s Brussels Bureau Chief, makes clear is that the alternative to the EPP doesn’t look that  promising and worse, where there is promise for a new bloc, that may cause Mr Cameron as many problems. Yet the Conservative Party’s European alliances are only a small part of the bigger picture. Cameron’s move away from the EPP is not unusual or without precedent in British politics but it is one that has been tried and tested before and has invariably come up short. Furthermore, Cameron risks isolating the UK from Europe precisiely at a time when greater cooperation is, and will be necessary, all to secure control of a rebel wing of his party.

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Between June 4th and June 7th, Europeans from twenty-seven member states will go to the polls to elect a new European Parliament.  One man, however, is more likely to tip the balance of power in Strasbourg than the electorates of most individual countries.  That man is David Cameron.  In 2005, when campaigning for the leadership of the Conservative Party, Cameron sought to ingratiate himself to the Eurosceptic wing of his party by making a pledge.  Choose me, he assured them, and I’ll bring the Conservatives out of the mainstream centre-right political grouping in the European Parliament, the EPP (European People’s Party), after the next elections.  The icing on this isolation cake was the surreptitious deselection and suspicious retirements of old-style pro-European Tory MEPs, and the imposition of control from Central Office during the MEP corruption scandals of Summer 2008.

photo credit: loungerie

Why exactly did the Cameroonian plan tug on the heartstrings of the John Redwoods and William Hagues of this world?  Above all, it’s important to remember that the modern-day British correlation between Left and Right and Europhile and Eurosceptic is an anomaly in international terms as well as historically (Labour’s 1983 manifesto promised, for example, to pull Britain out of the then-EEC).  Your most ardent Superstaters are likely to be found, not in the Socialist bloc, but within Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats or Nicolas Sarkozy’s UMP.  The Tories smell a federalist scent wafting around the hemicycle, and it gives them the jitters. For them, there’s nothing worse than the familiar refrain of common security, immigration and foreign policies.    And don’t get the anti-Maastricht veterans started on the Lisbon Treaty (no really, please don’t). 

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In an earlier post on language I alluded to the idea of a European “demos”, that elusive common sense of European identity and political community which would seem to be the key to any chance of “ever closer union”.  The disconnect between European citizens and their governing institutions is certainly stark.  Have you talked to anyone lately who’s getting excited about the upcoming elections to the European Parliament?  Can anyone doubt that the election of the American president was a much more exciting prospect for an overwhelming majority of Europeans than the selection of a new president of the EU Commission?  And what of the question of identity?  A resident of Manchester would probably describe him or herself as British, English, Northern and Mancunian before considering, if at all, that he or she might be European.

photo credit: Albertane

Some argue that it’s impossible to achieve a common political identity across 27 member states, pointing to different political traditions, language barriers and the enduring pride of the nation-state.  The possibility of “demos” and the very logic of supra-national representation was, for example, attacked by Czech President Vaclav Klaus in the European Parliament last month.  The attitude of Klaus, whose country holds the rotating presidency of the EU Council (bring on Sweden), is indicative of a habit of  unproductive naysaying.  It slams the European project without offering solutions and delights only those with preconceived Eurosceptic attitudes.

Without indulging in the media-fostered image of phantom overlords plotting away in Eurospeak in their Brussels hideaways, then, I fully admit the need for a greater sense of relevance for the EU and the importance of attempts to foster “Europeanness”.  Indeed, in response to Klaus’s challenge, the task of pro-Europeans is to identify measures that could be taken to improve the extent to which Europeans identify with their policy makers and planners.  Below the fold, I discuss some of these ideas.

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