Entangled Alliances

18:45 BST: Well, the time has come for me to quit this epic live-blog, given that I’ll soon be entering my twelfth hour of continuous live-blogging.  I know; I know – Obama’s about to give his press conference. But I’m about to collapse; so that’s that. I hope you enjoyed the  random, disparate, often unhelpful observations from yours truly. I know I did – live-blogging’s great! There’ll be some more analysis tomorrow from Entangled Alliances, looking in more detail at the exact provisions of the groundbreaking G20 agreement: what they are, whether they’re good and whether they’ll actually change anything, as well as a look at how the G20 will benefit its main players. But for now, I’ll leave you with a fitting quote from BBC business correspondent Robert Peston:

There are no surprises in the deal announced today to reform the banking system, to prevent banks making the kind of risky loans and investments that precipitated the worst global economic crisis since the 1930s.

But it’s nonetheless a historic event that the world’s 20 most powerful economies have signed up for these reforms – because they represent the death knell for the Anglo-American doctrine that economies flourish when financial firms are left alone to do as they please.

Indeed.

18:32 BST: Buried under all the G20 news has been the potentially groundbreaking meeting between Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, which resulted in an agreement to reduce the nuclear arms of both sides much further than the current agreement demands. This could be very important…

18:30 BST: A wise comment from the Guardian’s Andrew Sparrow (whose live-blog was probably better than mine but nowhere near as epic!):

I’ve been busy updating our main story, having sat through the opening of Brown’s statement. First reaction: I found myself sitting there thinking ‘David Cameron could not pull off an event like this’. That’s not because I think Cameron’s a lightweight. I don’t. It’s because the most important summit conclusions involve international finance, global trade and the inner workings of organisations like the IMF and there are probably very few prime ministers or presidents in the world who understand this stuff as well as Brown.

18:20 BST: Lest I be judged  by my comments below to have been a bit too harsh on the protests, I want to stress that I have great respect for most of them. I say most of them, because the anarchists were just so annoying. Proper anarchism is really cool. It’s an extremely sophisticated ideology . These guys, however, were just pathetic. Bad anarchists!  The majority of protests, however, made some good points.The fact remains, though, that they surely made no difference on the summit at all. If you want to get something changed, you focus on it like a laser and you don’t go off message. But the protests were never on message to begin with – from homelessness to climate change to ending the war to the death of capitalism; only a minority were  actually focused on the topics of the summit! The question becomes then – did they really want to influence the summit? Or did they just want to get their message out there in a sort of vague picture of defiance?  In their defence, however, you could respond that they never stood a chance anyway: governments don’t respond to the people anymore. No-one listened to Iraq protests, for example and they were very focused. So it’s an interesting debate. But I do think that they could have maybe stood a chance at getting some traction if they focused on one message and, you know, stuck to it.

18:13 BST: Here’s the full text of the communique, courtesy of the Guardian. There’s tonnes of details here…

18:10 BST: Oh and I forgot to add that hedge funds and other non-banking institutions will come under the aegis of this new Financial Stability board. Since the mysterious financing of hedge funds helped to exacerbate the mess, this is also good news; but again it all depends on how strong the regulation is…

18:05 BST: The headlines are focusing on the issues of tax havens and that $1 trillion figure, but there’s tonnes of other stuff that’s just as interesting. For example, there’s going to be a new Financial Stability Board that will work with the IMF to monitor the risk of banking transactions and impose limits on things like capital reserves and leverage requirements (not to mention executive bonuses.) This is absolutely crucial in getting the banks back on track and preventing such a crisis happening again, since it was an inherent failure in the banks’s ability to evaluate “systemic risk” that made the crisis so bad. This is pretty complicated and I’ll come back to this another time, but suffice to say it’s a good move – that is, as long as this new regulatory body actually has proper regulatory oversight.

17:54 BST: A timely article over at Foreign Policy discussing whether protests ever work. I agree with its basic conclusion: protests have to be unified and targeted; and focused on changing the system not overthrowing it. The G20 protests were none of these things and so I’m afraid that they’ve had absolutely no effect whatsoever.

17:46 BST: Did Sarkozy and Merkel get their victory? Or was there never any “victory” to begin with? Everyone was in agreement over the basic regulatory provisions. and had been for weeks. The real controversy-  over the possibility of national stimulus packages – was won by Merkel and Sarkozy weeks ago, and so it was no surprise to see no such provisions today. However, Sarkozy must be feeling pleased that the language on tax havens was quite fierce. In the big picture, it’s not really much of an issue, but he’ll make a big deal of it, which is fair enough…

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photo credit: vaviolino

Remember the old Chinese curse “may you live in interesting times”? It’s worth keeping in mind as we head towards April and the meeting of the 20 richest nations in the world: London’s G20 summit is going to be very interesting indeed.  As Mark Bailey reported in his recent post “G20 Preview: Gordon and Goliath”, Gordon Brown and Barack Obama are both calling for a global fiscal stimulus. The likes of France and Germany, however, are rejecting talk of more stimulus, choosing to focus solely on bank regulation – specifically the regulation of hedge funds and tax havens.

Now I like a good campaign against hedge funds and tax havens as much as the next man, yet it must be said that Gordon is completely right to demand that global stimulus packages be pursued at the same time as international bank regulation. As far as Europe is concerned, a large influx of government public spending would work  particularly well, as thanks to the free trade policies of the European Union any stimulus one country puts in place will immediately benefit their neighbours. This, however, is what concerns the likes of France and Germany: the fear that heavy national spending will simply leak out and end up as international spending.This particularly irks Germany who are already gritting their teeth at the prospect of having to bail out the troubled states of Eastern Europe (who, it turns out, are just rubbish at that capitalism malarkey).

But what the likes of Sarkozy and Merkel are forgetting is that with more and more Europeans losing their jobs, governments are facing lower tax revenues and higher welfare costs. The higher cost of paying benefits is particularly onerous on European governments, as unlike America the welfare systems of Europe are commendably generous (Britain excepted). Large stimulus packages, therefore, are essential to get people back to work and kick start Europe’s economy.

However, though Gordon Brown’s logic is sound his pan-European ambitions are leaving a bitter taste in the mouth – well, in my mouth anyway – because, despite his calls for a global stimulus, Britain has hardly had one worth the name. Indeed, so far the only “stimulus” we’ve had is last November’s £20 billion scheme, the majority of which went on a much derided cut in VAT. Let’s compare this with other countries, shall we?

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When domestic politics is getting you down, the international stage can prove a welcome diversion.  Just ask Bill Clinton.  But here in Britain we’re talking plummeting poll numbers, not impeachment, and the diversion of international economic policy, not cruise missile strikes.  Yes, what a breath of fresh air the international stage has been for Gordon Brown.  Far away from a seemingly insurmountable deficit in the polls, and rumblings in the Labour ranks, Brown has been reveling in a reputation as a far-sighted guru of economic policy, feted by the likes of Paul Krugman and fulfilling a boyhood dream (I’m with you Gordo) of addressing a Joint Session of Congress.  Next month, however, these two worlds will collide in a bold all-or-nothing attempt by Brown to merge the two currents of his premiership; an attempt to rescue his domestic political prospects and cement his role as a world leader in one fell swoop.  In April, the G20 is coming to town, and for Gordon Brown the stakes could not be higher.

photo credit: World Economic Forum

The London Summit, which will be held on one fateful day, April 2nd, is a follow-up to a session held last November in Washington D.C. – a session in which rather little was decided, except vague assurances about cutting taxes and increasing government spending.  The Prime Minister’s zeal was already clear at this stage.  He declared that the summit  was “the road to the new Bretton Woods. It is absolutely clear that we are trying to build new institutions for the future.”  For him, London is where the deal will be sealed.   His agenda is extraordinarily ambitious.  As the Economist sardonically put the issue:

The summit should not only stimulate the economy and renounce protectionism, but also bolster the IMF and other international financial outfits, revamp regulation, create an early-warning system for crises, and save the poor. It was as if Mr Brown thought the ailing economy would yield to an act of governmental will, if only it were colossal enough.

The Economist, ever pragmatic, argues that such overreach risks undermining the immediate necessities of global government stimulus and a united front against protectionism.  This pessimism seems to be borne out by the unenthusiastic noises coming from G20 capitals and an emerging transatlantic gulf in attitudes.  Below the fold, I look at the opposition to Gordon Brown’s plan for new financial institutions, and the implications for his domestic political fortunes.

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