The big news today is that Israel’s President Shimon Peres has selected Binyamin Netanyahu – leader of the right-wing Likud Party – to form the next government. This announcement comes two weeks after the results of the Israel elections, where the moderate Kadima party, headed by Tzipi Livni, beat Likud by one seat. Despite Livni’s victory, however, it was obvious from the start that Netanyahu (pictured, on the left) would likely be the one chosen to form a government, as he is able to scrape together a bigger coalition of right-wing parties than Livni can of left-wing ones. This outcome became near inevitable yesterday when extreme right-wing leader Avigdor Lieberman -whose party “Israel is our home” came a decent third place in the elections – fulfilled his kingmaker role by vowing to support Netanyahu. Following Peres’s decision today, we now know for certain that Netanyahu will be the next Prime Minister of Israel. (For more on the election results and the coalition alternatives, see my post Israel Election Results: Your guess is as good as mine)
The key question now is what the government he chooses to form will look like. Netanyahu has already reached out to Livni, as well as Ehud Barak of the left wing Labour Party, no doubt realising that a fringe right-wing coaltion government will be unlikely to accomplish much and receive little support from the U.S. – at least not from the new Obama administration. Indeed, he is reportedly ready to offer Livni the job of foreign minister and deputy prime minister, as well as the role of defense secretary to her deputy Shaul Mofaz. However, both Livni and Ehud Barak have signalled that they would rather stay in opposition than form a government with Netanyahu – Livni unwilling to be a “figleaf” for a right-wing administration- and thus a unity government must be considered the less likely option.
If Netanyahu does end up having to form a right-wing government, then the prospects for the two-state solution – and thus a real peace process – could be disastrous. In my next post I will explore why the two-state solution would be off the table and, more importantly, what happens if it is. (Hint: nothing good)
